3A State Meet Preview

By Robert ‘Twangster’ Brown for DyeStatFL.com

 

The field has been set in 3A with 24 teams and another 16 individual boys as well as 24 teams and 20 individual girls qualifying for the Florida Cross Country State Championship at Apalachee Regional Park in Tallahassee on November 7th, 2015. Over the last couple of years, this classification has been the most competitive top to bottom in the state but with some top schools being reclassified in 2015 this grouping has lost a bit of its panache. Though the number of top individuals has diminished comparatively to recent years, the title of toughest division remains in 3A for teams as the parity in 3A across the state remains strong.

 

2015 Boys 3A State Meet Preview

 

Team Championship:

 

Belen Jesuit had their 4-year team championship streak broken up last year with Chiles and Leon out scoring the Wolverines at the State finals. Leon had the better team average, but Chiles won the day with a miserly 0:36 spread and by putting their scoring 5 in the top 30. Will the Belen boys be back? Can Chiles chalk-up a couple in a row? Could a new champion be crowned in 2015? I will attempt to break down the info and give you my take, but you have to make your choices about who you feel will grace the podium in 2015.

 

On paper Region 1 is the strongest with four teams in the top ten as far as my team times/spread ratio formula indicates, Region 2 has 3, Region 4 has 2 and Region 3 with just one, but it’s a dark horse.

 

Here is my Top 10 breakdown

 

    1. Belen Jesuit HS – The Region 4 champs threw down 39 points and a 1:08 spread and they also saw the return of Senior Bruno Zayas. Bruno wasn’t a scorer, but can another week of training be the difference and tip the balance in the Wolverines favor? I say, yes, and Coach Ruiz and the Belen boys walk off with another State title because that is what dynasties do.

    2. Creekside HS – The Knights were crowned champs at the tough Region 1 meet by putting all scorers in the top 20 and having a paltry spread of 0:56. They outscored Chiles by 35 and Bartram Trail by 47. 2015 is a runner-up year for the Knights after being 4th last time around.

    3. Ocala Vanguard HS – Runner-up in Region 2 by only 3 points with some outstanding pack racing. Just 0:28 separating 1 and 5 with all coming in the top 17. That will serve them well at a bigger meet with eight more teams. Look for the Knights to be in the show position this year.

    4. Chiles HS – Defending State Champions and 2015 Region 1 runner-ups know how to race when it is all on the line. The Timberwolves have a great top 3 but the spread from the regional was 1:02 and that won’t get them back on the podium like the 0:36 did last year. If Coach Gowan can coax a little more out of his #5, then they could move up, but for now I will leave them in the four spot.

    5. Gainesville HS – Region 2 champs with a couple of low sticks in Lowery and Locascio, but the spread is 1:21 so the number 5 guy will have to pull his weight to make the ‘Canes stay in the top 5.

    6. Bartram Trail HS – 3rd place in Region 1 with some solid pack running putting their scoring 5 in a 0:56 spread.  As long as their top dog, Bubar comes back from a disappointing regional race they might sneak into the top 5, if not they could drop.

    7. Fort Myers HS – Region 3 champs in dominate fashion. Tamed a tough course with all scorers coming in the top 17, throwing out a stingy 0:41 spread. Senior Stephen Fedec is back in the fold, giving the Green Wave a lift, but it will be up to the pack to stay together and be up front if they want to charge into the top 5.

    8. Viera HS – Missed 2nd place at the Region 4 meet by just one point. The 0:34 spread is what almost got them that runner-up spot and with a bigger field at the state meet will get them in the top ten.

    9. New Smyrna Bch. HS – No. 3 team in Region 2 does not have a low stick per se, but these boys know how to race together. Just 0:34 separated their scorers at the region meet, and they missed a perfect score at districts by one point.

    10. Leon HS – The 4th place Region 1 team is lead by individual top ten potentials Cashin and Wallenfelsz but their spread is their Achilles heel. 1:38 at a 16 team meet is less harmful than at a 24 team meet. If Coach Wills can wheedle a little more out of his number 5, then top ten it is.

 

Outside looking in: Merritt Island HS.

 

 
Belen Jesuit Boys
 

Individual Champion:

 

From 2014, 8 of the top 10, and 15 of the top 20 finishers are gone to graduation, and another has moved to 4A with his team. That leaves 4 top returners and whatever newcomers to battle it out for the crown.

 

Looking at courses, geography, history, consistency and progression I will try to divine who has the best shot at glory and a spot on the podium at the end of the 3A tilt this Saturday morning.

 

Here is my Top 10 breakdown

 

    1. Steven Cross, Senior, Merritt Island  HS -  Winner at Pre-State 2015, Runner-up to Khosla at States 2014, FL #1 14:56 at Cape Coast Conference 2015, Foot Locker Finalist 2014. Only lost once this season by 1 second to a very talented Noah Perkins. Plus he is 9:22 3200m / 4:13 1600m 2015 track guy. It would seem that it is a given he will win being that he holds almost a minute PR margin over the next closest harrier in the classification. The big question is, will he go for the course record set by Sukhi in 2013 or hold back saving himself for the post season?

    2. Matthew Clark, Junior, Creekside HS – 11th place OA, but 2nd 3A boy at Pre-State 2015, 3A District 4 Champion 2015, 3A Region 1 runner-up by less than .5 second. Matt has blossomed into a solid racer this season and comes from a pretty good lineage. I like him in the place spot for those reasons.

    3. Marshall Matthew Dillon, Senior, Charlotte - 13th place OA, and 3rd 3A boy at Pre-State 2015 in 15:54.2, 3A Region 3 Champion 2015, 3A District 11 Champion 2015. He is also a 4:18 1600m / 1:55 800m track performer that can kick with the best of them, so Clark had better watch his back climbing the wall the second time around.

    4. Matthew Cashin, Junior, Leon HS – 15th place OA, and 5th 3A boy at Pre-State 2015, 3A Region 1 Champion 2015, 3A District 3 Champion 2015. The third Matthew in a row on this list has come on his Junior year and is brimming with confidence after taking out Clark at the line for the Regional title.

    5. Josh Collins, Sophomore, Belen Jesuit – 14th place OA, and 4th 3A boy at Pre-State 2015, 3A Region 4 Runner-up 2015, 3A District 16 Champion 2015. This Sophomore has raced a tough schedule this year and with the exception of a mid-season bobble at Chain of Lakes Park rose to the occasion every week.

    6. Thomas/Blake Lowery, Senior, Gainesville HS – Has raced in 6 meets this season winning five including 3A Region 2 and 3A District 5. He has impressive track times as well, going 9:34 3200m / 4:27 1600m this past season. The big question is why the name change?

    7. Josh Kennedy, Junior, Fort Myers HS – Kennedy has had an up and down season with his Region and District races being uncharacteristically off. But any student athlete that can notch a perfect score on the SAT in his sophomore year can probably get it figured out before SATurday.

    8. Adam Wallenfelsz, Senior, Leon HS – Not up to his Junior campaign performances this year, but still a solid racer with tons of big race experience.

    9. Austin Dodson, Senior, Chiles HS – Another solid Senior looking to parlay his skill into a podium finish and maybe a sub 16 mark to go with it.

    10. Austin Camps, Junior, West Shore HS – Great big race background will lead this Junior to the stage again this year after finishing 8th in 2014.

 

Outside looking in: Nicolas Roca, Senior, Belen Jesuit.

 

 
Charlotte's Marshall Dillon


2015 Girls 3A State Meet Preview

 

Team Championship:

 

Over the recent history of the Girls 3A meet we have seen Estero with a stranglehold on the top spot by winning titles in 2011, 2012, 2013 before succumbing to graduation attrition in 2014. Last year's team crown went to a very solid Creekside squad that put down a 19:13 average and 0:52 spread to get the job done, over a young but very game Fort Myers group. But, graduation has taken its toll again this year, and injuries have plagued some teams, leaving the cards shuffled in a style, not unlike 52 pick up. My task is to sort out the fray and give you insight to what is probably the most equally talented classification in the state this year.

 

My team times/spread ratio formula indicates that Region 1 is the most powerful with all six teams in the top 10. Region 3 has 2, and Regions 2 and 4 have just one each.

 

Here is my Top 10 breakdown

 

    1. Niceville HS – The Region 1 Champs in the toughest region by just 9 points over Chiles with a 0:45 spread and all 5 in the top 21. A pack running team with rotating top runners that can create headaches for opposing coaches. They take the title this year by staying together or lose it by getting spread out on the course.

    2. Chiles HS – 2nd Place to Niceville at the Region 1 meet by a narrow margin with their 1:42 spread being their undoing. At Pre-State Chiles was the top 3A girls squad in the Elite race, handily beating Niceville but that was then, and recent history puts them here in the runner-up position.

    3. Ponte Vedra HS – 3rd in the crazy stout Region 1 meet. They have an individual title contending low stick in Moritz but that 2:11 spread will hurt them worse in a 24 team tilt than did in a 16. If they get that straightened out, then I like them here in the show spot, if not, watch out below!

    4. Fort Myers HS – Region 3 Champions, lead by Junior standout Gear, has had some challenges in the form of injuries over the course of the season but fortunately noobs stepped up to get them back into contention. Their #2, Sophomore Abby Fisher, had a stress fracture a week before the season opener, leaving Coach Strong looking for answers. If they can improve on big race toughness and get that Region 3 2:26 spread fixed then I like them here.

    5. Creekside HS – 4th place team at Region 1 are coming together at the right time of the season. They have had a good 1 – 2 but the back end has not been consistent. Now it seems they have found a way to stay together and move up as a pack.

    6. Fort Walton Bch. HS – Grabbed the final team qualifying spot in Region 1, but it was scary. That 3:15 spread has to be concerning Coach Fields heading into the State meet.

    7. Merrit Island HS – Smoked the competition at the not so competitive Region 4 meet by having 6 in the top 17 with a 0:58 spread. Going to have to add some speed to contend at ARP but that should come by getting out of the South Florida heat.

    8. Columbia HS – 5th at the Region 1 meet lead by Morse. They will have to find a way to stay packed up if they want to finish in the top ten.

   9. Osceola HS – Runner-up to Fort Myers at the Region 3 meet with front-runner Grantges taking the OA 5 spot. The pack is what makes this team special though, and Coach Eagleson had his 3 through 7 runners all together, going 24+25+26+30+33 at Holloway last Saturday. That is why they make the top 10.

    10. Ocala Vanguard HS – Okay, they didn’t win their Region 2 meet, heck they didn’t even come in 2nd, but they were 3rd place at States last year and had a way of coming up big when it counts and boy, does it count this Saturday.

 

Outside looking in: Nease HS / Seabreeze HS

 

Individual Champion:

 

Of the top 20 from a year ago at this meet, 7 have been lost to graduation, 2 to season-ending injuries and 1 (a top 10) decided to pursue other opportunities. 50% attrition is not bad year to year, so there will be a lot of familiar names on this list, right? Not so fast my patient readers, this is where it gets interesting.

 

Again I look at courses, geography, history, consistency and progression to seek out the top harriers in the 3A Girls fracas at ARP.

 

    1. Brittany Gill, Senior, Dillard HS – The out-of-nowhere Gill has done nothing but win in this her first season EVER in cross country. That is except for that one race in Titusville where she was bested but one of the top girls in the state and had to settle for 2nd. The only thing that could be considered a weakness come Saturday is that she has never been to ARP before.

    2. Krissy Gear, Junior, Fort Myers HS – This is tricky because the 2nd through 6th places will be decided by mere seconds, maybe less, but Gear gets the nod based on her progression, success on tough courses and her incredible closing speed.

    3. Emma Tucker, Senior, Chiles HS – Emma was third last year at the State meet with a SB 18:44 and threw down her PR 18:26 at ARP in this year’s Pre-State meet. To say she likes the ARP course is an understatement.

    4. Kara Funke, Junior, Leesburg HS – 4th at the 2014 State meet as a Sophomore, Kara has not shown the same high consistency that she had last year, but if her Region 2 win is any indication she may be back in the groove.

    5. Claire Moritz, Sophomore, Ponte Vedra HS – Region 1 Champ 18:44, District 4 Champ 18:44 and 16th place at Pre-State in 18:44. Nothing like consistency from a coaching standpoint, am I right? Claire has a lot of confidence going into this weekend.

    6. Bridget Morse, Sophomore, Columbia – 2nd to Tucker at District 3 and 2nd to Moritz at Region 1, has Bridget optimistic about her chances at ARP. Add in the four wins on the season and you have a true contender.

    7. Maggie Parrish, Senior, Chamberlain HS – Maggie has been up and down this year but her most recent races, District 9 Champion and Region 3 3rd place, coupled with her Pre-State Girls Elite performance, where she was the 3rd 3A girl to cross the line behind Gear and Moritz, place here in the top ten.

    8. Maddie Fulmer, Senior, Fort Walton Bch. HS – Honestly 8 through 15 is up in the air as 10 seconds is all that separates the season bests, but for consistency, Maddie is my pick for the 8th slot. She has been up front for her team for a couple of years now and brings a ton of experience to the course.

    9. Alexandra Wallace, Senior, Chiles HS – Senior experience and course knowledge. See above.

    10. Kelly Aponte, Senior, St. Augustine HS – She was the runner-up at last years 3A state finals, besting both Tucker and Funke on this list, but this year has been different. She has the experience, and this is her last shot at it.

 

Outside looking in: Kayla Easterly, Junior, North Fort Myers HS.

 

 
Ft Myers Junior Krissy Gear


Well, that about wraps it up for me. I will not be in attendance at the State meet for the first time in 8 years, but it is only because I will be at another XC meet down the road.

 

Please remember to cheer only a positive way and that all these athletes deserve your support no matter if they are first or last, your team or another. Let the coaches do the coaching, the officials do the officiating and if you are a fan, relish your time in the autumn air at ARP watching the best the state has to offer sorting out the championships amongst themselves. The way it was meant to be.